| Description |
xviii, 233 pages : illustrations ; 22 cm |
| Content |
text txt |
| Media |
unmediated n |
| Carrier |
volume nc |
| Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references and index. |
| Contents |
pt. 1. A potted pre-history of prognostication. Do animals have crystal balls? -- The future eclipsed -- Galileo's hell -- pt. 2. How disasters happen. The stress of it all -- Runaway disaster -- The balance of nature and the nature of balance -- pt. 3. Imminent catastrophes : reading the signs. The chaotic ecology of dragons -- Teetering on the brink of catastrophe -- Models and supermodels -- Beware of mathematicians -- Weak signals as major early-warning signs -- Summary : The future of forecasting. |
| Summary |
Drawing on ecology and biology, math and physics, the author offers four fundamental tools that scientists and engineers use to forecast the likelihood of sudden change: stability, catastrophe, complexity, and game theories. |
| Subject(s) |
Accidents -- Prevention.
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Natural disasters -- Forecasting.
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Science -- History.
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Science -- Social aspects.
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Scientists.
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